As of April 15, 2026, physical oil prices are experiencing a massive surge, with premiums for immediate delivery reaching historic levels due to a near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

While financial futures for Brent and WTI have recently steadied or even dipped on hopes for diplomacy, the underlying physical market remains in a severe supply crunch. 

• Record Physical Premiums: Physical crude for immediate delivery is trading as much as $40 to $50 per barrel above futures prices.
• Benchmark Peaks: North Sea Dated Brent hit a record high of approximately $144.42–$147 per barrel in early April, surpassing the 2008 record of $144.22.
• Regional Surges: Oman crude recently touched a record $173 per barrel, while Dubai crude reached an all-time high above $150, reflecting a desperate scramble for Middle Eastern replacement barrels. 
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• Volume Trapped: Approximately 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude are estimated to be trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, unable to reach global refiners.
• Traffic Collapse: Tanker traffic through the strait has plummeted from a pre-crisis average of 138 ships per day to roughly 5–6 per day, a 95% decline.
• Structural Shortage: The IEA reported a total global supply drop of 10.1 million bpd in March 2026, the largest disruption in modern history. 
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• Naval Blockade: On April 13, 2026, the U.S. declared a naval blockade of the strait to intercept ships from Iranian ports, further intensifying supply uncertainty.
• Mine Clearing Operations: The U.S. Navy has begun operations to clear naval mines reportedly laid by Iran, which have rendered the strait “effectively closed” despite theoretical ceasefire agreements.
• Diplomatic Hopes: Prices for futures contracts dipped today following news of a potential second round of peace talks in Pakistan between the U.S. and Iran.